Saturday, November 10, 2007

The Regional Distribution Of IDOT's Highway Capital Dollars

Introduction

This post looks at the allocation of highway capital dollars by the Illinois Department of Transportation throughout the State of Illinois, using factors such as population, highway miles, and daily vehicle miles traveled in each IDOT district. Likely to no one's surprise, it shows that District 1, which encompasses the six counties of northeastern Illinois, receives less than any other district on a vehicle miles traveled basis and is second lowest on a per capita basis, although it tops the State in terms of investment on a per highway mile basis. This analysis indicates that northeastern Illinois subsidizes highway capital investment in the rest of the State, a fact that may have some relevance in the ongoing debates over the "bailout" of the public transit agencies operating in District 1.


Methodology

The Illinois Department of Transportation has posted its FY 2008-2013 Proposed Highway Improvement Program (here). Such detailed capital program documents were long shrouded in bureaucratic secrecy by IDOT. Governor Blagojevich's administration should get some credit for posting the Program in the public domain and, in general, making more information about IDOT and its programs publicly available.

The Program allocates capital dollars for highway improvements among each of IDOT's nine districts (district map here). District 1 covers the same six counties in northeastern Illinois that make up the service area for the Regional Transportation Authority and its three service boards--Chicago Transit Authority, Metra, and Pace. The remaining districts are Downstate. Generally speaking, the higher the district number the further south the district.

I pulled highway miles, daily vehicle miles traveled, and FY 2008-2013 capital investment data from the Program. I aggregated 2000 Census data for each Illinois county into district population figures. Then, I utilized my primitive Excel skills and went to town.

Summary Results

Per Capita Highway Investment

District 1 $382.44
District 2 $917.26
District 3 $1,649.3
District 4 $1,058.47
District 5 $600.11
District 6 $313.74
District 7 $1,011.16
District 8 $1,175.02
District 9 $1,425.75

Statewide Average $621.75
Downstate Average $935.20

Investment Per Highway Mile

District 1 $918,623.88
District 2 $387,403.45
District 3 $446,224.26
District 4 $350,153.85
District 5 $206,870.80
District 6 $147,072.82
District 7 $241,463.41
District 8 $466,703.66
District 9 $344,217.69

Statewide: $432,536.06
Downstate: $322,941.53

Investment Per Daily Mile Traveled

District 1 $26.96
District 2 $52.16
District 3 $66.67
District 4 $60.53
District 5 $28.85
District 6 $29.71
District 7 $43.04
District 8 $54.26
District 9 $58.84

Statewide Average: $37.42
Downstate Average: $49.83


Analysis

This summary lends itself to two related conclusions. First, it appears from both the per capita and vehicle miles traveled data that the denser land-use patterns in District 1 lend themselves to more cost-effective highway transportation than in the less densely populated areas Downstate. This was a bit of surprise to me, given the higher land acquisition and construction costs in an urban area, but it makes sense when one considers the higher level of use of urban roadways.

Second, because of that higher level of cost-efficiency, IDOT is able to shift money from Northeastern Illinois to fund Downstate highway projects. District 1, after all, accounts for 63.52% of the population and 54.24% of the daily vehicle miles traveled in Illinois, yet it will receive only 39.07% of IDOT's highway capital dollars under the Program. Presumably, the percentage of vehicle miles traveled in a district approximates that district's contribution of gas taxes and other revenues for IDOT's highway program. The major difference between District 1's revenue contribution and its return in the form of IDOT highway capital investment is highly significant.

Some caveats. First, this analysis does not consider IDOT's investment in other transportation modes such as airports and public transit. When IDOT's investments in those other modes are factored in--something I hope to do down the line--District 1 may not be such a heavy donor region after all. Second, the Illinois Tollway system, which is centered in District 1 and is completely funded by user fees--frees up District 1 money for use Downstate. It is quite possible that these two effects cancel each other, leaving District 1 as a major donor region.

Third, it is possible that the distribution of IDOT's capital investment reflects a certain ebb and flow among the districts. Maybe the 2008-13 period is a down period for District 1 and that it might even become a donee district at some point in the future when it finally undertakes expensive new projects like the Western O'Hare Bypass. Finally, this analysis does not consider the value of the products being carried on the highway in each district. It is possible, although I don't think it is likely, that the value of goods carried on Downstate highways is higher than the value of goods carried on District 1 highways.

The purpose of this analysis is not to incite more Chicago vs. Downstate antagonism. Every great urban region, after all, needs to be linked effectively to its hinterland. The notion that "Chicago" is soaking up a disproportionate share of the State's transportation dollars, however, appears to be a myth.

Detailed Results

District 1
Population 7,261,176 63.52%
Highway Miles 3,023 18.40%
Daily Vehicle Miles 103,000,000 54.24%
FY 2008-13 Investment $2,777,000,000 39.07%
Per Capita Investment $382.44
Per Mile Investment $918,623.88
Per VMT Investment $26.96

District 2
Population 710,814 6.22%
Highway Miles 1,683 10.24%
Daily Vehicle Miles 12,500,000 6.58%
FY 2008-13 Investment $652,000,000 9.17%
Per Capita Investment $917.26
Per Mile Investment $387,403.45
Per VMT Investment $52.16

District 3
Population 472,901 4.14%
Highway Miles 1,748 10.64%
Daily Vehicle Miles 11,700,000 6.16%
FY 2008-13 Investment $780,000,000 10.98%
Per Capita Investment $1,649.39
Per Mile Investment $446,224.26
Per VMT Investment $66.67

District 4
Population 537,568 4.70%
Highway Miles 1,625 9.89%
Daily Vehicle Miles 9,400,000 4.95%
FY 2008-13 Investment $569,000,000 8.01%
Per Capita Investment $1,058.47
Per Mile Investment $350,153.85
Per VMT Investment $60.53

District 5
Population 461,585 4.04%
Highway Miles 1,339 8.15%
Daily Vehicle Miles 9,600,000 5.06%
FY 2008-13 Investment $277,000,000 3.90%
Per Capita Investment $600.11
Per Mile Investment $206,870.80
Per VMT Investment $28.85

District 6
Population 984,879 8.62%
Highway Miles 2,101 12.79%
Daily Vehicle Miles 10,400,000 5.48%
FY 2008-13 Investment $309,000,000 4.35%
Per Capita Investment $313.74
Per Mile Investment $147,072.82
Per VMT Investment $29.71

District 7
Population 391,631 3.43%
Highway Miles 1,640 9.98%
Daily Vehicle Miles 9,200,000 4.84%
FY 2008-13 Investment $396,000,000 5.57%
Per Capita Investment $1,011.16
Per Mile Investment $241,463.41
Per VMT Investment $43.04

District 8
Population 715,734 6.26%
Highway Miles 1,802 10.97%
Daily Vehicle Miles 15,500,000 8.16%
FY 2008-13 Investment $841,000,000 11.83%
Per Capita Investment $1,175.02
Per Mile Investment $466,703.66
Per VMT Investment $54.26

District 9
Population 354,901 3.10%
Highway Miles 1,470 8.95%
Daily Vehicle Miles 8,600,000 4.53%
FY 2008-13 Investment $506,000,000 7.12%
Per Capita Investment $1,425.75
Per Mile Investment $344,217.69
Per VMT Investment $58.84

50 comments:

Rick Powell said...

The "55/45" formula for downstate/D1, while I'm sure is not perfect for every year's scenario, attempts to accommodate many of the points you bring out. If you go on highway mileage alone, downstate should get over 80% of the money. Obviously, such a strategy would overlook the higher VMT's and expansion needs in NE IL, as well as the higher construction and land costs inherent in the region.

On the other hand, apportioning the funds by population would result in over 60% of highway funds going to NE IL. This might lead to a severe underfunding of downstate maintenance needs, especially considering there are over 10,000 bridges and large culverts on the downstate system, not to mention all the interstate and local highways.

FYI, District 3's program was at its peak during the Build Illinois capital program, where we had one year at $250 million. District 3 also contains 4 of the 5 counties surrounding District 1, so there are high growth "exurban" areas with expansion needs that are vying for funding along with District 1 and all the other downstate districts. The needs are changing, even if the revenue is somewhat stagnant at the present time.

Anonymous said...

Since it is the 2008-2013 plan, the nearly $1B spent on the Dan Ryan (plus whatever on the Kingery), are, of course, not included, skewing the results.

Rick Powell said...

The Ryan and Kingery projects totaled a little less than $1.5 billion, and do not show up in the FY 2008-13 plan because they were funded earlier.

The customary split between downstate and D-1 is 55%/45%. It's more like 60%/40% in this planning cycle, likely in part because of the 2 large projects that are mentioned. Be cautious in comparing a 6-year plan (with only the current year funded) to actual $ expended. There are so many variables that could happen between now and then, such as a capital construction plan, new federal transportation bill, emergency projects, and changing priorities. The likelihood of the projects programmed today for FY 2013 vs. the actual FY 2013 program being identical is next to nil.

Moderator said...

Rick--

How long has the 55/45 formula been in place? Has it been adjusted over the years to reflect the growing share of the Illinois population and economic activity accounted for by the counties in northeastern Illinois?

Rick Powell said...

Moderator-

55/45 has been in place at least since the Edgar administration, and may date back further. I'm not so sure it was ever more than a handshake agreement that has been followed, more or less, ever since. I would think some analysis and justification was presented and agreed to by the powers-that-be at the time.

It would be interesting for you to do the same analysis on, say, the Highway Improvement Plan and associated VMT, etc. from around 1980 to see if conditions and balances have changed a lot since then. The district boundaries have been tinkered with a few times since the late 1960's, so an exact district-by-district comparison may not be meaningful. For example, District 1 dropped Kankakee and Kendall counties in 1974, and absorbed the old District 10 (city of Chicago) sometime in the late 1970's. The other districts reorganized in 2006 with several swaps of counties.

As you mention, NE IL is a growing region. Metro East is growing slower, but is still fairly active. Southern and western IL have been draining population for years (however the I-57 corridor between I-64 and I-24 is heavily travelled by pass-thru traffic), and the rest of IL seems to be holding its own with a few pockets of growth in the Bloomington and Rockford areas. A big change in travel demand in "downstate" over the last 20 years is the explosive growth in the 5 counties adjacent to District 1.

Justin said...

Excellent tidbit of analysis. To be fair, you might add transit expenditures to the total for District 1 - since I'd guess this is one of the ways D1 is able to be more efficient.

Also, these figures represent public expenditures only. I wonder what would happen if you could somehow include private expenditures too? The costs of car payment, fuel, and transit fares are part of the mobility system too. District 1 might start to look even more efficient at getting people from point A to B?

Rick Powell said...

Justin,

It's going to be very difficult to compare the "efficiencies" of District 1 to, say, District 9. I doubt if anyone ever got caught in a traffic jam driving from Dongola to Urbandale. Consequently, if I am waiting for a ride from the public transit system on a street corner in Dongola, I surmise that I am in for a very long wait...longer than if I was standing on a corner of Archer Avenue, that's for sure.

They are two very different areas, and transportation has been, and should be, tailored somewhat to fit each area's needs.

Davey said...

Good start at trying to track the arcane budgeting process for transportation. It will become much more useful when all forms of transportation are included, however. Even more useful would be a breakdown of where the money comes from for capital projects and where it goes. Then we could finally see who is subsidizing what.

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