CMAP: Compact As In Dense?

Yesterday was the roundtable sponsored by the Metropolitan Planning Council that featured Reid Ewing, the leading author of "Growing Cooler: The Evidence on Urban Development and Climate Change." (Book available for free download here.)

Ewing's presentation, like the book, was very informative. He started by demonstrating the link between increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere and an increase in world temperature. Ewing had some Chicago-specific data showing that the average temperature in Chicago has gone up significantly in the past 25 years.

After establishing the heavy contribution of the transportation sector to CO2 emissions, Ewing then focused on three factors that establish the level of those emissions: (1) vehicle fuel efficiency; (2) carbon content of the fuel used to power those vehicles; and (3) the miles covered by those vehicles. Ewing pointed out, like the authors of a study recently summarized here, that vehicle miles traveled have increased much faster than population growth. This VMT growth offsets the improvements in vehicle efficiency and the use of less carbon rich fuels, which leaves the transportation sector responsible for an unacceptably large and growing share of carbon emissions.

Ewing outlined how the Chicago area is sprawling and how that exurban growth is driving a VMT growth rate four times the rate of population growth. He said that the Chicago area has not done a good job of building up regional centers (e.g., Joliet, Waukegan) as relatively dense communities. He also said that his research shows that the Chicago area does not score well on measures of mixed use. In other words, the region is not generating the kind of walkable/bikeable communities where many of life's destinations (e.g., school, work, shopping) are a relatively short distance away from each other.

Ewing's central point is that the only way to significantly reduce CO2 emissions from the transportation sector is to replace sprawl with compact development. By replacing the current dominant form of suburban/urban development with more compact, mixed use communities we can cut down driving and hence carbon emissions significantly. Perhaps most provocatively, Ewing argues that the housing market is increasingly inclined in favor of higher density housing. If his charts are to be believed, then the value of the McMansions on the large lots is likely to stagnate at best in the years ahead while real estate in more compact areas should appreciate in value at a more robust rate.

Ewing believes, however, that one can't bet the future of the earth's environment on consumer preferences and real estate market trends. He stopped for questions before he could go through all of his federal, state and local policy recommendations. They are easily accessible in Growing Cooler.

During the Q&A session he did discuss two policy recommendations. The first is a carbon impact fee that would be imposed on developments that will generate high levels of CO2 emissions because of the VMTs required to utilize them. The second is a system for the regional transfer of development rights. This is a system designed to allow owners of farmland to collect some of the value in their land because of its development potential by transferring development rights to developers who could use the rights to build at a higher density elsewhere in the region, preserving the open space.

The seminar included short speeches by Sadhu Johnston, Chief Environmental Officer of the City of Chicago, and Randy Blankenhorn, Executive Director of the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning. Johnston was a fount of relevant information, including:

• Per capita carbon emissions in Chicago is about 12 tons annually, compared to 7 tons in New York and 6 tons in London.
• Buildings account for 61 percent of carbon emissions in Chicago and transportation 20 percent. Transportation accounts for 32 percent of carbon emissions in the suburbs.
• The areas surrounding many Chicago Transit Authority and Metra stations in Chicago lack the kind of density associated with transit oriented development. The City is focusing on TOD around such rail stations.
• City residents save over $2 billion annually because they generate fewer VMTs on average.
  
• Some of the communities in the region are banding together in a Green Region Compact to address climate change issues.

Blankenhorn was the polar opposite of Johnson. Even though his agency is charged with spearheading land use planning for the region he provided no indication that CMAP doing much of anything to address Ewing's common sense notion that to deal with climate change we must suppress the growth in VMTs. Instead Blankenhorn relied on an arpeggio of rhetorical questions to the effect of "how are we as a region going to address this and that issue raised by climate change." Geez, I thought we were looking to CMAP to take the lead on answering those kinds of questions. No such luck if Blankenhorn's windy oration is any indication.

Maybe Blankenhorn was having a bad day. Maybe he was keeping CMAP's sustainability agenda under wraps until next Tuesday's CMAP-sponsored Innovation + Integration Summit on "Creating a Regional Agenda to Address Climate Change." Let's sure hope so.

Two other notes from the MPC roundtable. First, the State of Illinois (e.g., Illinois Department of Transportation, Illinois EPA) did not appear to have any representation at the roundtable, which is disappointing given the importance of the topic and the role State investment in infrastructure plays in creating or confounding compact development. The organizers also stated that MPC had organized a reception for legislators to meet Ewing that morning and only one legislator showed up. (Let's hope the MPC didn't make the mistake of inviting the legislators to a "special session" with Ewing!)

Second, the crowd was overwhelmingly white. How is it that this region is so diverse and the transportation professional sector is so unrepresentative of that diversity?

Do We Need An RTA For Transportation Seminars?

This blog has lambasted the RTA and its oversight shortcomings on occasion, probably too much for the taste of readers given the tepid response to the last posting on the subject. However, it looks like the transit aficionado community could use some oversight, at least when it comes to coordinating schedules.

The Center for Neighborhood Technology and the Metropolitan Planning Council have booked partially overlapping seminars this Thursday. It is a shame, because both seminars look interesting and likely appeal to similar crowds. Here's the information:

Planning Transit Routes that Meet Your Community’s Goals

Join us for a Webinar on December 6.

Space is limited.
Reserve your Webinar seat now at:
https://www.gotomeeting.com/register/406268508
STPP and CNT are hosting the second "From the Margins to the Mainstream" webinar. This session will discuss integrating transit service planning with community planning and design in understandable terms for the non-technical person. Audience interaction will be a key part of this webinar. Please plan to join us on Dec. 6 at noon Eastern.

The webinar will feature leading transportation experts, including officials from transit agencies, local land-use/planning agencies, and the developer community.
STPP and CNT's goal is to give you the tools to participate more effectively in your community's transportation planning and decision making processes. This webinar is the second in a series of webinars CNT and STPP are hosting in order to improve public involvement in transportation decision-making. As part of the same project CNT and STPP will also be hosting two workshops and on-site pilot projects in 2008. Funding for this program is provided by the Federal Transit Administration, the Oak Foundation,and AARP.

Title: Planning Transit Routes that Meet Your Community's Goals
Date: Thursday, October 6, 2007
Time: 12:00 PM - 2:00 PM EDT

* * *
MPC ROUNDTABLE LUNCHEON

The Heat is On: Why hybrid vehicles won't save the planet
December 6
12:00 pm–1:30 pm
Mayer Brown, 71 S. Wacker Drive, 33rd Floor
Cost for MPC donors: $15.00
Cost for non-donors: $30.00

MPC 2007 Winter Roundtable Series. Reid Ewing comes to speak about his new, highly acclaimed study, which concludes that energy-efficient cars and low-carbon fuel technologies alone are not enough to reverse the damaging effects of climate change. Along with a panel of local experts, Ewing will discuss how we need to change the land-use patterns which create our auto dependency.

Should The Metropolitan Planning Council Just Fold Up Shop?

The Chicago Tribune recently published an article by Charles Leroux and Patrick Reardon entitled "Leaps of Faith Drive Ever-Expanding 'Burbs." The article explores why people are migrating to the so-called exurbs at the edge of the Chicago metropolitan region.

The answer is a familiar one. People get more house and lawn for their money. They get something new rather than a tired building decades old. They get to be part of a growing and dynamic community with lots of new faces and energy. The downsides, including long commutes on a highway system choking on they and their exurban compatriots, are not enough for most folks to opt for a smaller, more expensive house in a denser, transit-oriented urban area.

The article builds on the work of Loyola University-Chicago professor Kenneth Johnson. Professor Johnson in his paper entitled "Demographic Trends in Metropolitan Chicago at Mid-Decade" found that Chicago and suburban Cook County lost population (62,000 (-2.1%) and 27,000 (-1.1%) respectively) during the 2000-06 period, while the population on the suburban fringe (stretching from Northwest Indiana to southeast Wisconsin) increased by 500,000 (12.7%).

Johnson suggests that the population increases experienced by Chicago and suburban Cook County in the 1990s may have been a temporary pause in the decades-long migration of the region's population to the exurbs. Even in the 1990s, however, the growth rates of Chicago (4.0%) and suburban Cook County (6.9%) paled beside the growth rate in the suburban fringe (20.6%).

The current difficulties in securing an increase in operating subsidies for the Regional Transportation Authority, the Chicago Transit Authority, Metra and Pace may be in part attributed to a reluctance to increase the public investment in a transportation system whose market base appears to be weakening. This despite service board efforts to attract more riders by rolling out more service than they could afford, as the Auditor General found.

Another indication of public transit's relatively weak market position is found in the Illinois Policy Institute's recent analysis of the CTA, summarized in yesterday's post. This analysis found that the CTA is generating fewer riders per employee and per dollar of public subsidy than it has in the past. It is understandable why some public officials might be reluctant to increase public investment in a system that is not performing well.

As for the Metropolitan Planning Council, the Tribune article has the following:

"There's a joke in my profession that Rockford will be the next suburb," said John LaMotte, a land-use planner whose clients include developers and municipalities. "Now look at how close the edge is getting to Rockford. It's already out to Marengo."

Scott Goldstein, housing expert for the Chicago-based Metropolitan Planning Council, said he believes Rockford won't be the last stop. "I absolutely think it's going to expand for many, many more miles," he said. "It certainly goes to Indiana and Wisconsin. Are we going to approach the Iowa state line?"

If the Metropolitan Planning Council, that paragon of good planning, public transit and compact, transit-oriented development, has given up on taming sprawl then maybe it should just shut its doors and stop using its newsletters and seminars to prick the consciences of those who still believe that paving over paradise is not such a good thing.

Governor Blocking Congestion Pricing In Illinois?

Ed. Note: By now congestion pricing is hardly a new thing, in transportation or in other areas. The basic notion is that you use price to efficiently allocate a high-demand resource. It costs more, for example, to attend a Chicago Symphony Orchestra concert than it does your local school's band concert (unless Frances Parker is your local school!). Utilities price their product higher during peak demand period. You pay more for parking during special events than during off hours.

When demand for highway space exceeds supply, price can serve such an allocative function. Pricing can be set dynamically to maximize traffic throughput and travel time reliability. These benefits are not limited to just the private auto. The service offered by public transit buses using the priced route improves significantly because travel times are both faster and more certain on the route.

The federal Department of Transportation has embraced congestion pricing. (FHWA Congestion Pricing Primer here.) The five recent winners of Urban Partnership Program grants, ranging from from $63 million to $355 million each, all promised prompt implementation of congestion pricing programs. In contrast, this region's application didn't even make it out of the first round of the Urban Partnership Program competition because it lacked any credible congestion pricing plan.

Posted in below is a slightly edited report about the recent Lipinski Symposium from someone who currently works in Springfield. Note the bolded discussion indicating that the Governor opposes congestion pricing. If this opposition holds, then over the next few years congestion pricing efforts on major congested State roads and interstates in the State appear doomed to failure. The State can forget about tapping into future federal programs like the UPP designed to encourage implementation of perhaps the most effective way to counter traffic congestion, namely, congestion pricing.

But who needs a few hundred million dollars of federal money and a steady revenue source for transportation purposes anyway?

* * *
LIPINSKI SYMPOSIUM REPORT

Representatives Coulson, and Nekritz attended part of the Symposium. However, there was not much outreach to the legislators for the Symposium. Peter Skosey from MPC was pleased with the nearly 200 people who attended. Many were transportation policy experts. IDOT sent their chief of staff and their planning director. The service boards were represented, along with rail union and rail government liaisons. Planning agencies were in attendance as were lobbyists. The right people needed to be there.

The political environment in Springfield was somewhat of a sore spot throughout the symposium, with presenters taking gentle jabs at the topic throughout the day, until the last panel. [The last panel included several elected officials.]

It was productive in the sense that programs throughout the United States and even Stockholm, Sweden (congestion pricing through referendum) was discussed. There are some viable options out there if only our leaders would simply step back and consider these noteworthy options to save the crippling infrastructure in the State of Illinois.

I felt that William Lipinski along with Chairman Obsterstar were almost pleading with the audience to make things work in Illinois, for state officials to come together. Millions of dollars are out there in earmarks for the taking only, and only if, the State of Illinois gets its act together and come together on this issue.

I've asked the Chief of Staff at IDOT about congestion pricing in the past. I was told that the Governor does not support congestion pricing.

There was also some discussion to the need for raising the federal motor fuel tax by a minimum of 10 cents, not 5 cents (and this was mentioned in at least 3 of the 4 panels). Obsterstar even supported raising the motor fuel tax by a minimum of 10 cents.

I wouldn't say it was a waste of time necessarily. These ideas needed to be discussed.

However, with transit being held hostage in our current political environment, the Chicago region remains doomed.

The only thing I didn't want to hear was Lake County Chairman [Suzi Schmidt] stating the system needed to shut down. I've heard this in Springfield. If I was on the other side I would definitely start protesting the mass transit crisis facing the region. Say, shut down the system one morning to show everyone the effect of fewer buses on the street, etc.; and not wait until November 4th for the first doomsday and January 6th for the second doomsday.

Here are some links to check out:

http://mobility.tamu.edu
www.brookings.edu/metro - Brookings Institute Metropolitan Policy Program
www.atri-online.org - A May 2007 report regarding motor fuel tax
www.vtpi.org - Victoria Transport Policy Institute

Lipinski Symposium: Materials Online

Here's the link to the presentation materials from the Lipinski Symposium. Those of us who didn't get the coveted invitation or missed parts of the symposium can play catch up.

I'm promised a full-fledged report on the Symposium in the next day or so from a participant who disagrees with the snarky comments posted thus far. In the meantime check out page 3 of 4 of David Horner's presentation. Then consider how likely it is that the description of SB 572 and its sales tax increase as a long-term operating funding solution for public transit will prove to be correct.

Lipinski Symposium: Reactions

The Lipinski Symposium on Transportation was an invitation-only event on Monday designed to encourage Chicago area transportation leaders to think outside the box. Pasted in below are two reports. Add your own in the comments or send them to moderator1stc@yahoo.com and I will post them.

Comment #1

The >Lipinski Symposium was pretty much what I expected. There were exhortations from a couple of politicians, William Lipinski and James Oberstar (someone described them as the "bring home the bacon twins"). The panels of experts covered familiar transportation management techniques (e.g., congestion pricing) as if these things had just appeared on tablets on the mountaintop. There were a couple clunkers (e.g., the fellow who was very excited about logistics). At the end there was a panel of politicians who treaded carefully through questions about the current transit funding crisis.

The audience was pretty passive. There were few politicians there to convert to the "progressive" cause. Those that were, such as Representative Julie Hamos, Lake County Board Chairman Suzi Schmidt and DuPage County Chairman Robert Schillerstrom, weren't biting on the ideas of congestion pricing and a tax on parking spacings that were being discussed.

I thought that some of the day might be spent on breakout sessions with the goal of developing a set of principles/priorities that might be adopted, or at least voted upon, by the group. Instead, we were pretty much pumpkins for the day.

* * *

Comment #2

Moderator--

I don't know if you got in the Lipinski symposium. I strapped on a tie and snuck in for the afternoon session (even got a cookie).

What struck me is how male, pale and stale the group was. This is a highly diverse region, but you would never know it from this group. A large majority were white men over 50. There was a smattering of women, maybe 10% in all, and even fewer minorities.

There were some good ideas thrown out during the day, but this group seemed stuck in a Fifties/Sixties time warp. They clearly are oriented (indoctrinated?) to think that minor changes to existing institutions, lots more money, and some engineering fixes will allow Chicago to continue on its merry way.

Have the well dressed tushes of these fellows ever felt a bike seat for a commute? Have concepts like global warming and reducing the carbon footprint penetrated their consciousness? Are they aware of the potential of ride-sharing programs using a mesh network model?

The pivotal moment came when Todd Litman, who is to transportation what Eric Clapton once was to the electric guitar (i.e., god), was speaking. Litman outlined why reducing vehicle miles traveled is by far the preferred solution to our transportation system woes. This approach generates the most benefits--congestion relief, accident reduction, environmental improvements, etc. Litman then laid out some strategies involving little or no new infrastructure, such as pricing insurance on a VMT basis and a tax on parking spaces, that together could reduce VMT by 20 percent.

The audience was dumbfounded. These guys clearly didn't get it. Their brains were spinning because they can't think outside of what Litman called the reductionist mindset that says that only a transportation solution can solve what is being perceived as a transportation problem. The more cynical among them were probably thinking that Litman's approach will never fly because there are not enough construction contracts involved.

I'm sorry, but all these good ideas were largely wasted on a group that is clearly set in its ways and fighting hard to preserve the status quo. I never realized what such a stodgy group is the public's custodian/advocates for our transportation system. Scary.

Countdown To The Lipinski Symposium

The exclusive, by-invitation-only, hottest-ticket-in-town Lipinski Symposium on Transportation Policy is on Monday. You can download a program and reading list here.

The symposium is supposed to be webcast through a link on the Northwestern University Infrastructure Technology Institute webpage. Such a link is nowhere to be found. But if your taste in entertainment is watching our local transportation elite respond to contemporary transportation management/funding ideas (e.g., red-faced hoots of "Mais Non! No congestion pricing in our town" and vigorous waving of placards "SB 572 or Death") then try to tune in Monday morning. The phone number of the Infrastructure Technology Institute is 847-491-8165. Bug 'em if the webcast link isn't up by then.

Thanks to a kind reader for these links, which are tucked into one of the highly coveted invitations.

MPC Has The Hottest Ticket In Town

Forget about Cubs playoff game tickets. (And forget about the hapless Cubs.) The real hot ticket in town is to the Metropolitan Planning Council's upcoming "invitation only" event. Transportation aficionados, public officials, academics and transportation industry representatives are all clamoring to get a precious invitation. Rumor has it that folks are lining up at the MPC's door, hoping to obtain a ticket. To escape the shame of not receiving an invitation, others are arranging urgent appointments that require them to leave town that day.

Here's the MPC's description of the event:

On Monday, Oct. 15, decision makers will connect with global, national and regional transportation experts at "Moving the Region in a New Direction: the Inaugural William O. Lipinski Symposium on Transportation Policy," a day-long, invitation-only forum, co-sponsored by McCormick Tribune Foundation, Metropolitan Planning Council, and Northwestern University, to build consensus on new ways to plan, manage and finance metropolitan Chicago's transportation network in the coming decades.

The guest list includes the following:

• Hon. William O. Lipinski, former U.S. Representative and former Ranking Minority Member, Aviation, Rail, and Highways subcommittees

• Rep. James Oberstar (D-Minn.), Chair, U.S. House Committee on Transportation & Infrastructure

• Rep. Julie Hamos (D-Evanston), Illinois House of Representatives and Chair, House Mass Transit Committee

• Randy Blankenhorn, Executive Director, Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning

• Edward Hamberger, President & CEO, Association of American Railroads

• Todd Litman, Founder & Executive Director, Victoria Transport Policy Institute

• Timothy J. Lomax, Research Engineer, Texas Transportation Institute

• Hani S. Mahmassani, Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northwestern University

• Daniel Murray, Vice President of Research, American Transportation Research Institute

• Robert Puentes, Scholar Fellow, The Brookings Institution; Author, Taking the High Road: A Metropolitan Agenda for Transportation Reform

• Robert J. Schillerstrom, Chair, DuPage County Board

• Suzi Schmidt, Chair, Lake County Board

• Gunnar Soderholm, Director, Stockholm, Sweden 's Congestion Charging Program

Hope springs eternal each day as I rummage through the mailbox.